Solar Will Out-Generate Coal in Texas for the First Time This Year

For the first time, Texas is expected to generate more electricity from solar than coal this year.

Reuters, citing the U.S. Energy Information Administration, forecasts 78 billion kilowatt-hours of utility-scale solar generation across the ERCOT grid in 2026, compared with 60 billion from coal. By 2027, the gap is expected to widen: 99 billion kilowatt-hours from solar versus 66 billion from coal.

From 2021 to 2025, solar's share of ERCOT generation jumped from 4% to 12%, while coal fell from 19% to 13%. Natural gas still leads the grid, averaging about 44% of ERCOT generation over that same period, but the growth story is increasingly solar.

For Austin founders, this is a signal. When the grid that powers most of Texas starts shifting this quickly, the opportunity stack shifts with it: batteries, grid software, interconnection, demand response, electrification, energy efficiency, permitting, and infrastructure services.

That does not mean the transition is simple. More solar creates new needs around storage, transmission, forecasting, and evening peak demand. But that is exactly where founder opportunities tend to appear: at the messy edge between growth and constraint.